My estimate of the Conservatives majority is 100 plus

A week or more ago I had a bet with a chum that the Conservative majority would be over 100. He was hugely sceptical of this number.

I was electioneering even before my first vote in the general election of 1964. Only in this general election has my input been less.

In 1964 we were living in the Wrekin constituency [now the Telford constituency] in southern Shropshire. It returned Conservative William Yates in 1964 with a small majority. In the following election in 1966, it turned Labour with Gerald Fowler – a good candidate and MP. Being in a marginal constituency is fun [with majorities are in the mid 100’s]. Well, it is for party workers, when effective campaigning can be seen to make a difference. In the following 1970 general election, the constituency returned Conservative Anthony Trafford with a small majority.

After 1970 I lived in strongly Labour-held London constituencies, and then later in Wolverhampton South West, where the MP was Enoch Powell, who had a huge majority. Twasn’t till the late 1980’s that we moved to Surrey Heath.

This history is a round-about way of explaining my experience and how it helps me get to the 100 plus majority in this election. Of course, I could be miles out in my estimate. It’s just that I think Midlands constituencies frequently change political representation, and being mostly strongly in favour of Brexit I think they’ll change to Conservatives this time. The same, I believe, goes for constituencies in the North East.

The metropolitan cities of London, Manchester, and Liverpool is where the Labour votes reside, and where the Conservative messages gain no traction.

This is an unusual election – coming as a surprise, being short in duration, and initially focused on a single topic – Brexit. It hasn’t turned out like that, with terrorist incidents dramatically altering the focus, and I believe the election outcome. Another reason for my 100 plus prediction.

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